How this works. Click an option for each question. Correct ones turn green; wrong ones turn red, with an explanation showing the right answer. Aim for 8/10 first time through; revise the weak topics; come back.
Question 1
Which 1992 polling failure is the classic 'shy Conservative' case?
Answer: The Major-Kinnock election. Polls predicted Kinnock; Major won by 7 points. Coined 'shy Tory'.
Question 2
MRP stands for?
Answer: Multi-level Regression and Poststratification. Used to estimate constituency-level vote shares from a national sample.
Question 3
Which body regulates UK pollsters?
Answer: British Polling Council. Voluntary code; no statutory regulation.
Question 4
Which polling failure relates to the 2017 GE?
Answer: Underestimating Corbyn surge. Late Corbyn surge was missed by most pollsters.
Question 5
YouGov's 2017 GE forecasting tool was?
Answer: MRP. First major UK use of MRP at scale - correctly predicted hung parliament.
Question 6
Which year saw polls predict Conservative majority but get a hung parliament wrong direction?
Answer: 2017. 2017 - polls had Conservatives well ahead; result was hung parliament.
Question 7
'Bandwagon effect' means?
Answer: Voters switching to the predicted winner. Late deciders shift towards the apparent winner.
Question 8
'Underdog effect' means?
Answer: Voters supporting the predicted loser. Late deciders sympathise with the apparent loser.
Question 9
Which 2024 forecast best matched the actual GE result?
Answer: YouGov MRP. MRPs broadly tracked the Labour landslide.
Question 10
In France, polling is restricted in the days before elections by?
Answer: Statutory pre-election ban. France bans polls in the final days; UK does not.