Politics Panther · Paper 1 · Voting Behaviour and the Media

Opinion polls in UK politics · Overview

What polls measure, how they fail, and what role the media plays in framing politics.

1. Spec sections this topic covers

Topic on the spec4 · sourced from Edexcel A-Level Politics 9PL0

The assessment of the role and impact of the media on politics, both during and between key general elections, including the importance and relevance of opinion polls, media bias and persuasion.

Types: voting intention, leadership ratings, issue salience, MRP (multi-level regression poststratification), tracker polls, push polls.
Major polling failures: 1992 (shy Conservatives - Major beat Kinnock), 2015 (Conservative majority not predicted), 2017 (Corbyn surge underestimated).
Methodology: random vs quota sampling, online vs telephone, weighting by likelihood-to-vote, MRP for constituency-level forecasts (e.g. YouGov 2017, 2019, 2024 MRPs).
Regulation: British Polling Council voluntary code; no statutory regulation. Debates over publication-day bans (cf. France).
Effects on politics: bandwagon, underdog, late-swing, narrative-setting, leader-confidence swings.

Polls are evidence in any voting-behaviour question - learn 2024 GE figures (Reform 14.3% predicted vs 5 seats won) and the 2026 local-election polling context.
The exam often pairs polls with media influence (paper press, broadcast, social media) - keep both ready.
Strong AO3: are polls a barometer or a driver? Argue both sides with at least one named example each.

Drawn from the Panther question bank. The Notes page in this pack covers the content needed to answer these.

Year	QID	Question
2023 Mock	P1-2023M-Q2a	Evaluate the view that election outcomes are influenced more by the media than by any other factors.
2021	P1-2021-Q2b	Evaluate the view that the influence of the media in politics is exaggerated; it is not heavily biased and has little power of persuasion.
2020	P1-2020-Q1a	Using Source 1, evaluate the view that a person's age and the media have now replaced social class and region as clear indicators of voting behaviour.