Politics Panther · Paper 1 · Voting Behaviour and the Media

Four elections (1979, 1983, 2019, 2024) · Overview

The 45-year arc from end-of-consensus to Starmer realignment, framed for the case-study question.

1. Spec sections this topic covers

Topic on the spec4 · sourced from Edexcel A-Level Politics 9PL0

Case studies of three elections (one from the period 1945-92, the 1997 election, and one since 1997), the results and their impact on parties and government.
The factors that explain the outcomes of these elections, including: the reasons for and impact of party policies and manifestos, techniques used in their election campaigns, and the wider political context of the elections.
The factors that explain the outcomes of these elections, including: class-based voting and other factors influencing voting patterns, such as partisanship and voting attachment.
The factors that explain the outcomes of these elections, including: gender, age, ethnicity and region as factors in influencing voting behaviour, turnout and trends.
Analysis of the national voting-behaviour patterns for these elections, revealed by national data sources and how and why they vary.

1979: Thatcher (Con 339, Lab 269). Backdrop: Winter of Discontent, IMF bailout. Significance: ends post-war Keynesian consensus. C2 swing decisive (Right to Buy).
1983: Thatcher landslide (Con 397, maj 144). Falklands bounce, Labour Bennite manifesto, SDP-Liberal Alliance 25.4% / 23 seats (FPTP disproportionality).
2019: Johnson 80-seat majority. Brexit deadlock, Red Wall collapses, biggest age gap in modern UK polling. Corbyn ratings worst in YouGov record.
2024: Starmer 411 seats / 33.7%. Largest Labour majority since 1997 on lowest winning vote share in modern history. Reform 14.3% / 5 seats. Lib Dem revival to 72.
Frameworks to use: CAGER (Class, Age, Gender, Ethnicity, Region) for long-term factors; CLIMP (Campaign, Leadership, Issues, Manifesto, Press / Polls) for short-term.

Section A of Paper 1 includes a 30-mark question requiring case studies of "three key general elections" - that means at least three of these four.
The exam reward is for SYNTHESIS across elections, not biography of each. Use a factor-based structure (one paragraph per long-term theme, one per short-term theme).
The class-party link weakening across these four elections is the single most important pattern. The age gap exploding is the second.

Drawn from the Panther question bank. The Notes page in this pack covers the content needed to answer these.

Year	QID	Question
2025	P1-2025-Q2b	Evaluate the view, with reference to at least three general elections, that social class and region have very little impact on voting behaviour.
2024	P1-2024-Q2b	Evaluate the view that the outcomes of general elections are mostly decided by election campaigns and manifestos.
2023	P1-2023-Q1a	Using the source, evaluate the view that in 1997 the election was lost by the governing party rather than it being won by the Labour opposition.
2023 Mock	P1-2023M-Q2a	Evaluate the view that election outcomes are influenced more by the media than by any other factors.
2020	P1-2020-Q1a	Using Source 1, evaluate the view that a person's age and the media have now replaced social class and region as clear indicators of voting behaviour.
2019	P1-2019-Q1a	Using the source, evaluate the view that the outcomes of general elections are stable and predictable.
Sample	P1-SAMP-Q2a	Evaluate the view that general elections in the UK are lost by the government rather than won by the opposition.
Sample	P1-SAMP-Q2b	Evaluate the view that social factors determine voting behaviour.