Predicted Paper 3 USA · Q5 · Section C essay, 30 marks

SCOTUS most consequential branch?

"Evaluate the view that the Supreme Court has become the most consequential branch of federal government."

1. Why this question might come up in Summer 2026

The Roberts Court's 2022-24 rulings have made constitutional consequence the central US political question. Q5 essays on Court power come up roughly every two years and are due. The 2024 Trump v US immunity ruling, the 2022 Dobbs and Bruen rulings, and the 2023 affirmative-action ruling each individually reshaped federal policy. Combined they make the case that the Court has become the most consequential branch in modern American politics.

Spec hook. 5.4 The Supreme Court and civil rights. 5.4.1 Composition and appointment. 5.4.2 Power and rulings. 5.4.5 Comparative analysis with the UK Supreme Court.

2. The case FOR (SCOTUS is the most consequential branch)

Dobbs v Jackson 2022 - overturning Roe

Dobbs eliminated a 49-year-old federal abortion right with no Article V remedy possible. 14 states banned abortion within months. This is the largest single federal-policy change of the 2020s and Congress played no role.

Bruen 2022 - gun rights expansion

NYSRPA v Bruen 2022 struck down New York's concealed-carry licensing scheme using a new 'history and tradition' test. State and federal gun regulations across the country had to be reassessed. Congress could not have achieved this expansion.

Trump v US 2024 - presidential immunity

Trump v US July 2024 held that a former President has absolute immunity for official acts and presumptive immunity for ambiguous acts. This effectively ended the federal prosecution of Trump for January 6 actions. The Court rewrote the constitutional limits of presidential power in a single ruling.

Students for Fair Admissions 2023 - affirmative action

Students for Fair Admissions v Harvard / UNC June 2023 ended race-conscious admissions in higher education. Decades of practice across hundreds of universities ended in one ruling.

Major questions doctrine

The Roberts Court has used the 'major questions doctrine' (formalised in West Virginia v EPA 2022) to strike down significant executive-branch regulations including Biden's student-loan forgiveness, OSHA vaccine mandate, EPA Clean Power Plan, and parts of the SEC climate-disclosure rule. The Court has effectively constrained executive policymaking on major questions of national consequence.

6-3 conservative majority

The current Court is 6-3 conservative (Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett) vs (Sotomayor, Kagan, Jackson). The majority is durable - all six conservatives are under 75 except Thomas (76) and Alito (74). Locked in for years.

3. The case AGAINST (Congress and President remain more consequential)

Congress controls the budget

The federal budget is over $7 trillion. Congress controls every dollar of federal spending through appropriations. The Court has no equivalent power. The Inflation Reduction Act 2022 ($891bn) and CHIPS Act 2022 ($280bn) reshaped industrial policy more than any Court ruling.

The President sets foreign policy

Trump's tariffs (announced January 2025), the Russia-Ukraine policy, the Israel-Hamas response, the China relationship - all driven by presidential executive authority. The Court has no equivalent reach in foreign affairs.

Court rulings can be reversed by legislation

Many SCOTUS rulings can be effectively reversed by Congress: the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act (2009) reversed a 2007 SCOTUS pay-discrimination ruling. The Voting Rights Act 1965 was passed in response to Court inaction. Congressional power is greater because it sets the legal framework the Court interprets.

Executive immigration and law enforcement

Trump's 2025 mass-deportation programme, ICE operations, the Border Patrol's policy enforcement - all driven by executive action. The Court has slowed but not reversed any of these.

Trump's Project 2025 implementation

Schedule F to politicise the civil service, executive orders on energy / immigration / DEI, the dismantling of independent agencies - all happening through executive action without major Court intervention.

4. Pick a side

The stronger answer is YES - the Supreme Court has become the most consequential branch. Dobbs, Bruen, Trump v US, Students for Fair Admissions, the major questions doctrine cluster - each individually is a major federal-policy change; together they show a Court that has reshaped American constitutional law in ways the elected branches cannot reverse. Defenders point to budget, foreign policy and executive immigration - all real - but those are policy areas. Constitutional law is the framework within which all other policy operates, and the Court has rewritten it.

5. Writing strategy

Your final judgement

SCOTUS has become the most consequential branch. Constitutional law is the framework within which all other policy operates. The Roberts Court has rewritten it on abortion, guns, executive power, voting rights and regulatory authority - irreversible without Article V or a future Court reversal.

Strategy

  • Pick a side. Open with the line. Every paragraph ends with an interim judgement.
  • Thematic structure: rights / executive power / regulatory power / appointment durability. Each weighs both views.
  • Use 2022-2024 rulings throughout. Trump v US 2024 is the most recent and most consequential.
  • Comparative angle to UK Supreme Court: stronger US Court because of constitutional review power; UK Court can only declare incompatibility, not strike down statute.