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Paper 1 · 2026 · 30 marks
Using the source, evaluate the view that class and region remain the most important factors in influencing how people vote.
Voting Behaviour & The Media
Source
Source 1(a) shows a contested debate about the factors that influence voting patterns in the UK. (Source adapted from: https://www.transformingsociety.co.uk/2019/11/27/class-still-matters-in-elections-but-its-changing-nature-needs-to-be-understood/ and https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10009/CBP-10009.pdf)
Claire Ainsley
Class and region are the most important factors in influencing how people will vote. Being working class is now more accurately defined by having a lower income and renting your home, rather than by having a traditional manual job. Recently, the working class has endured declining public services and inflation both of which have reduced their living standards. This means that the working class is shaped by both class and partisan alignment. Not everybody in recent years have become homeowners and middle class and thus Conservative Party supporters. Middle class voters are more influenced by economic issues, low taxation and house prices, and therefore lean more to the political right. Patterns of voting have a long-standing regional bias. Labour is strong in London, urban areas and the north - having regained seats lost in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats are strongest in South-west England and the Conservatives in the rural areas of the UK.
Richard Cracknell and Carl Baker
Social class and region are no longer a reliable indicator of how a person is likely to vote. Age is now one of the most important factors which determine how people vote, and this has been constant through many elections. In the Conservative/Labour contest, Conservatives enjoy a significant lead in voters aged over 65 (who have a high turnout rate) and Labour lead in the younger ages 18-24 and 25-34 (who have lower turnout figures). Ethnicity is a good indicator of a person's voting behaviour with Labour enjoying a clear lead of 29% with minority ethnics and a lead of 52% with black voters. Issue based voting is now more significant than class. Labour has a 28% lead with those who voted remain in the EU referendum, whilst the Conservatives lead amongst voters who have concerns about immigration.
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