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Paper 1 · 2025 · 30 marks
Evaluate the view, with reference to at least three general elections, that social class and region have very little impact on voting behaviour.
Voting Behaviour & The Media
Mark scheme: agreement
AO1: Class dealignment has meant that class, and as a knock-on impact region, has diminished as a factor in determining how people will vote. AO2: Society is no longer clearly defined by social class. Whilst social class was previously a good indicator of voting behaviour it no longer accurately predicts how a person will vote, and this also impacts on regional voting; the move of middle class voters to Labour in 1997, and collapse of the 'red wall in 2019' and 'blue wall' in 2024 are all valid is examples of this. AO3: We can conclude that even if some form of social class structure exists, both class and region fail to give a clear indication of voting. AO1: A person's age or ethnic background are now better demographic indicators of how a person will vote. AO2: Age or ethnicity have replaced social class or region as demographic indicators of how a person will vote. There is a strong bias towards the Labour Party, as well as the Greens, Lib Dems etc, amidst younger people or ethnic minorities – but white and older voters are more Conservative or Reform leaning. AO3: We can conclude that age and ethnicity are more helpful indicators than a person's class or region. AO1: Voters are now more rational and make voting choices based on a more logical calculation based on policy. AO2: Voters now make rational policy choices on how to vote, rather than following class based interests. For instance, a person may cast their vote based on how their views of climate change, or their economic self-interest. AO3: We can conclude that rising education levels lead to a more rational choice model of voting behaviour. AO1: Alternatively party unity, election campaigns, or leadership could be seen as stronger factors in voting behaviour. AO2: There are multiple other factors that can be seen to drive voter choice, other than demographics of policy – with voters preferring parties that are unified, campaigning well or have strong leaders. AO3: We can therefore conclude that demographic factors, such as class or region, are comparatively less important.
Mark scheme: disagreement
AO1: Social class remains a very important factor in how people vote, even as class and party identity evolve. AO2: Social class continues to play an important role in determining how a person will vote, as it is closely aligned to occupation, housing and economic interests, even as the party allegiances connected to this shift. AO3: We can conclude that social class has evolved rather than declined, and these new class-based factors and allegiances are very relevant. AO1: When we combine social class with turnout, we can see how relevant class remains. AO2: When we combine a person's social class with the turnout rates its significance soars, as higher social classes have an increased turnout compared with the lower classes across all recent general elections. AO3: We can therefore conclude that the impact of class on the outcome of elections is even stronger than simply how people vote. AO1: The region where a person lives continues to have a large impact on how a person votes, especially when combined with class. AO2: Although there are variations between general elections there is a clear regional voting pattern. Labour is more dominant in the North, London, other major cities, which also has a class aspect. The Conservatives are far more secure in the south and more rural areas. AO3: We can conclude that although these patters were disturbed by the Red Wall in 2019 and Labour loss of Scottish votes since 2015, former regional bases are now returning to the fold. AO1: By comparison other factors can be seen as less important, or as actually reflecting class or regional issues. AO2: Perceptions of leadership and competence are often related to existing prejudices, just as apparent issue based voting is heavily tied to economic self-interest. AO3: Thus the factor that are supposedly replacing class could be argued to actually be a reflection of class and region.
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