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Paper 1 · 2024 · 30 marks
Evaluate the view that the outcomes of general elections are mostly decided by election campaigns and manifestos.
Voting Behaviour & The Media
Mark scheme: agreement
AO1: In order to win a general election, the campaign is of paramount importance, failure on this would be a disaster for any party trying to win. AO2: A political party sets out a campaign strategy and how it plans to win a general election, and this is of the highest priority. As such the campaign has to take in all aspects in the run up to the general election and it is planned in great detail and run by experts. AO3: Therefore it is clear that campaigns are vital. AO1: A campaign for a general election has to be planned to cover all potential details, it cannot be left to run without guidance and steering from the party. AO2: Campaigns can make or break the election result, as was evident in the 2017 election. AO3: We can easily reach a verdict that elections cannot run without a highly thought through campaigns and it is of the highest importance for all parties in the election contest. AO1: The manifesto of a party sets out the direction and steer the party will take if it secures office – voters make up their mind based on manifestos. AO2: The manifesto is the declaration of the party's policies and values when in government and these are studied in detail by voters. It is the brand image of the political party. A manifesto has become increasingly important in an age of class and partisan dealignment where there are a vast number of floating voters who make up their minds out of self-interest and select issues which are listed in the manifesto. AO3: Therefore it is clear that manifestoes are vital. AO1: The manifesto can be seen a future promises and voters may be swayed to forget past mistakes if new offers are on the table. In recent years it has been more modest than radical. AO2: If unpopular content is in the manifesto it can damage the outcome for a party in the election. In 2017 the Conservatives had to withdraw its plans for elderly people who were suffering from dementia – as it was dubbed a 'dementia tax'. Some see manifestos as documents which calm and confirm voters choices in a continuum of party ideas. AO3: therefore it is clear that manifestoes are vital. AO1: (What) is put out there will; shape the way people vote. AO2: Gaffes in the media spotlight can be very damaging e.g., Bigotgate with Brown and eating a bacon sandwich with Ed Miliband. AO3: We can conclude the media is intrusive and unforgiving of mistakes. In addition. some media is downright hostile and makes personal attacks on politicians values and integrity. AO1: Some political leaders are afraid of the media and failure under its spotlight. AO2: Theresa May declined to take part in a party leaders debate and sent Amber Rudd as a substitute and Boris Johnson refused to be interviewed by Andrew Neil for fear of criticism. AO3: We can conclude that rather than fail in the media spotlight some politicians prefer to avoid it at all costs.
Mark scheme: disagreement
AO1: Many commentators imply that the campaign has no major significance and it fails to change voters' minds as a result of it. AO2: It is argued that voters have made up their mind long before the campaign kicks off, often due to events that have occurred in the prior years, e.g. Liz Truss mini-budget, 2008 financial crash, Black Wednesday. AO3: We can conclude that no matter how well a party runs a campaign the election has been lost or won before it begins. AO1: Leaders of a party can be considered to be a more significant influence on voters. AO2: Leaders of parties are now arguably the most significant influence on election outcomes. This could be seen in all recent elections. AO3: Therefore it is clear that leadership is more significant than campaigns or manifestoes. AO1: Voting behaviour may be much more important than the campaign or the manifestos. AO2: Before the campaign is launched or the manifesto published, an election is decided by established patters of voting behaviour such things such as a person's class or other factors. AO3: Once again, we can conclude that the campaign and manifestos are not powerful. AO1: The media has a far larger impact than campaigns and manifestos. AO2: Many argue that the lens through which we view the campaign and manifesto is the media. The media has the potential to destroy or promote them. AO3: We can conclude that how many people vote in elections are in determined by the media and the campaign and manifesto are secondary issues with only marginal impact on outcomes.
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