‹ All questionsPaper 1 · 2021 · 30 marks
Using the source, evaluate the view that opinion polls bring more advantages than disadvantages to elections and referendums.
Democracy & Participation
Source
Source 1 concerns the use of opinion polls in UK politics. Part of the extract comes from a House of Lords report into the recent impact of the use of polls. The second part of the extract is a more positive view of polling from Peter Kellner in The Evening Standard.
House of Lords report
Opinion polls influence voters and parties. They can deflate turnout if they show one party way ahead. Opinion polls cause voters to vote tactically. Opinion polls can influence the demand to call a general election and for parties to abandon principles in order to gain popularity. In the Scottish independence referendum, a poll showing that 'leave' was in the lead made all the parties work harder to change the outcome. The core issue is that they mislead and do not give an accurate reflection of the voting preferences across the UK and as such they damage democracy.
Peter Kellner, The Evening Standard
The 2017 polls were not all wrong. They successfully reflected changing opinions during the campaign. Theresa May's rating tumbled, while Jeremy Corbyn's rose. Social care was the issue that caused Conservative support to fall. They correctly showed the Liberal Democrats had stalled, with UKIP support collapsing, and a significant switch from the SNP to the Conservatives in Scotland. They showed how Labour's manifesto gained them support while the Conservative manifesto put voters off. In a close contest, opinion polls can improve turnout. Opinion polls are part of a free media and integral to a healthy representative democracy.
Mark scheme: agreement
AO1: Opinion polls are often inaccurate and can give false information to the electorate as they cast their vote in elections and referendums.
AO2: This may mean that voters may change their minds based on incorrect facts. Thus they are misleading.
AO3: We can reach the verdict that this is very damaging as opinion polls are shaping rather than reflecting the political landscape.
AO1: Opinion polls may lead to parties changing their policy and stances on certain topics.
AO2: This may arise from outside interests attempting to influence choice in elections and referendums. This may make political parties' hostages to the fortunes of incorrect opinion polls.
AO3: We can conclude that opinion polls undermine the democratic process of elections and referendums.
AO1: Opinion polls can cause voters to vote tactically in elections.
AO2: This means that opinion polls thwart a voter's primary goal and force them to abandon their first voting preference.
AO3: Tactical voting undermines democratic representation and highlights a failure of the democratic process.
AO1: Opinion polls can have an adverse impact on turnout.
AO2: This can arise on two fronts. If a person feels that their party is way ahead they may not bother to vote - equally if a person feels that their party, according to opinion polls, has no chance they do not vote.
AO3: We can conclude that opinion polls damage or limit turnout by reducing turnout.
Mark scheme: disagreement
AO1: Opinion polls can show a clear trend in the fortunes of political parties as shown in 2017. Other examples can be used.
AO2: Some opinion polls were accurate in identifying the fortunes of political parties in the GE of 2017. Other examples can be used.
AO3: We can conclude that opinion polls give an accurate picture of how the public feel about opinion polls.
AO1: They can show the public's views on parties' policies.
AO2: Opinion polls become sounding boards for differing policy options.
AO3: We can come to the judgment that opinion polls help parties formulate policy which has public approval.
AO1: Opinion polls are a key part of the free media and of the process of election and referendum campaigns.
AO2: We are not presented with just one 'official' opinion poll - there are very many and each has an element of variance.
AO3: We can conclude that all 'opinion' polls are useful indicators and have become an integral part of the UK democratic process.
AO1: Opinion polls can have a positive impact on turnout.
AO2: When results are close, opinion polls can motivate people to vote.
AO3: We can conclude that opinion polls enhance democracy by increasing turnout.