‹ All questionsPaper 1 · 2020 · 30 marks
Using Source 1, evaluate the view that a person's age and the media have now replaced social class and region as clear indicators of voting behaviour.
Voting Behaviour & The Media
Source
Source 1 is adapted from the YouGov website, which analysed the 2017 General Election: its findings covered a range of topics that influenced the electorate. It attempts to understand the reasons why people voted for a particular political party.
Evidence that age and media are now the key indicators
YouGov found that newspaper readership was a strong predictor of voting patterns. 73% of Guardian readers voted Labour, while 79% of Telegraph readers voted Conservative. The media is now a vital factor in determining how people vote. Age has also become a significant element, as recent governments have treated older people more favourably than the young.
[Chart data: Likelihood of British adults to vote Conservative or Labour in the 2017 GE by age]
Labour/Conservative crossover occurs at age 47. For every 10 years older a person is, the likelihood they would vote Conservative increases by 9 points; the likelihood they would vote Labour decreases by 9 points. At age 18, approximately 65% of voters chose Labour vs around 20% Conservative. At age 80, approximately 30% Labour vs 70% Conservative.
Evidence that social class and region remain important indicators
However a person's employment and the work they do are also important. The Conservatives led Labour by 11 points among people working in the private sector, while Labour was 10 points ahead of the Conservatives among public sector workers. A person's social class has considerable influence over how they will vote, as does the region in which a person lives. Labour is no longer as dominant in Scotland as the Conservatives are in Southern England outside London.
Mark scheme: agreement
AO1: On the graph, age shows a consistent pattern in how people vote.
AO2: As a person ages they become more inclined to vote Conservative and the younger they are the more inclined to vote Labour.
AO3: Given the clear correlation we can conclude that age is the deciding factor in how people will cast their vote.
AO1: Age has replaced class and region as the clear indicator of voting intentions.
AO2: Class and partisan dealignment has brought about this change and renders class and region now an uncertain guide to voting patterns.
AO3: We can reach a verdict that as we progress through time there are fluctuating variables which better explain voting patterns.
AO1: As the source mentions, according to YouGov, media is a major factor in indicating how a person will vote.
AO2: The newspapers may have declined in readership but are still influential, as are other forms of social media.
AO3: The media, including social media, are decisive factors in how people vote. Newspaper choice may reflect the reader's views rather than altering it.
Mark scheme: disagreement
AO1: The importance of age must also take turnout into consideration.
AO2: Turnout for the younger age bracket is far less than for the older age bracket.
AO3: We can conclude that age by itself is an insufficient guide to how people vote.
AO1: A person's class and where they live is an important indicator of how they vote.
AO2: We can see the establishment of safe seats and political heartlands which make more impact. This may link to class alignment.
AO3: We can conclude that class and region are far more important than age.
AO1: The work a person does, whether private or public sector, is also an important indicator of how they vote.
AO2: A person may be motivated by the care and concern of others in a public agency such as the NHS.
AO3: Hence a person's employment background indicates decisively how people vote.