Paper 1 · 2019 · 30 marks
Using the source, evaluate the view that the outcomes of general elections are stable and predictable.
Voting Behaviour & The Media
Source
The source considers the factors which deliver success for political parties in general elections. It reflects on whether the outcomes of general elections are predictable or whether the electorate can spring surprises, making the results more volatile.
The case for stable and predictable election outcomes
Some people claim that success in a general election for a political party depends on stable and predictable forces. Few seats change hands in a general election and voting patterns are predictable and constant. In studies of voting behaviour, factors such as an individual's class and family background combined with the area in which they live all merge together to provide a clear indication of the way an individual will vote. On this basis, opinion polls accurately indicate the outcomes of a general election. When many people are asked, they readily identify with both a specific class and endorse the policies of a major political party. The dice is loaded from the start and outcomes of general elections are all too predictable and fixed.
The case for volatile and unpredictable election outcomes
Many now doubt the idea of predictability and the assumptions on which it is based. Instead of predictability they infer unpredictability and volatility with an inability to forecast accurately the outcome of how the public will vote. In fact in 2015, 111 seats changed hands and in 2017, 70. General elections and success in them is built around capturing ideas and having media support. What the political parties say in new policies and their manifestos matters greatly. Opinion polls, as the general election in 2017 showed, are no longer good indicators of the outcome. If anything, the 2017 general election illustrated the importance of age and education as indicators of how people vote. The media can make and break a political party. Riding the wave of media attacks, a political party must have a good leader who can weather any storm and connect with the masses. This is what Blair and Thatcher did and was the basis of their success. Policies and leaders are the crucial factors and, as such, they are the leading indicators for success at the polls.
Mark scheme: agreement
AO1: Few seats change hands in a general election
AO2: It has been the pattern since the post war period that there are an enormous number of ‘safe seats’
AO3: Therefore, we can conclude that general elections are won and lost in the few marginal seats
AO1: Class & region are major determinants of voting behaviour
AO2: This means that a person’s class and region are crucial in how they vote
AO3: One can conclude that class & regional voting leads to predictability and stability in in general election outcomes
AO1: Opinion polls are accurate predictors of voting behaviour
AO2: Opinion polls shows stability in voting patterns
AO3: We can conclude that the historic accuracy of opinion polls shows stability and predictability in General elections.
AO1: Voting behaviour indicates party alignment
AO2: This means that not only does a person identify with a class this alignment is further enforced when a person identifies themselves with a particular party working in their interests
AO3: We can conclude that elections are predictable as political parties can rely on vast swathes of the electorate to vote for them stable and predictable.
Mark scheme: disagreement
AO1: The pattern of few seats changing hands is no longer applicable
AO2: This means that there is increased voter volatility and greater ‘swings’ or changes in voter preferences
AO3: We can conclude that far from being predictable and stable it is no longer possible to predict vast swathes of ‘safe seats’ thus general elections outcomes are volatile
AO1: People’s votes are now influenced by party policies and issues
AO2: This means that voting is ‘instrumental’ implying that voters are all independent agents who make up their mind on what is to their rational benefit
AO3: Thus, we can conclude that party and class alignment are not reliable as people now vote more out of self-interest
AO1: Opinion polls are no longer a reliable indicator of how people vote.
AO2: This has been evident in recent elections showing voter volatility
AO3: Age and education have also been factors recently
AO1: We can conclude that inaccuracies in opinion poll predictions shows that elections are not predictable or stable.
AO2: Age and education have become better indicators of how people will vote, overtaking class and party loyalty
AO3: We can reach the verdict that, the basis of predicting voting behaviour has many changing factors leading to instability in electoral outcomes.
AO1: It is leaders and the media who shape the way people vote
AO2: In recent years there has been more emphasis on the style and brand of parties. This means that a greater sense of importance is attached to these factors various, leading to instability in electoral outcomes
AO3: We can conclude that predictability is therefore no longer assured and constant and the switching of voter allegiance means that the fight for people’s votes is more intense and on a different playing field than in the past